What is important is the order of magnitude

At world of Paris Motor, Carlos Ghosn made mount pressure, one last time, on General Motors (GM). Sensing that an American is less motivated than him with the idea of a great marriage to three, which concrete benefits must be encrypted before October 15, the patron of Renault and Nissan introduced yesterday things to the point: "If GM management does not want, it does not occur."

And brandish a veiled warning: If the alliance with the Detroit group "materializes, this will have no consequences on the short or the long term." "But whatever happens, we at the end of this work, Editor's note a very good assessment of the expansion of the Renault-Nissan alliance to a North American partner", insists Carlos Ghosn. Implication: If the case did not lead with General Motors, the duo could turn to Ford. The latter application not better to engage in negotiations with Renault-Nissan turn, and to isolate GM. From the beginning, talks to three left on fragile foundations because it is Kirk Kerkorian, the cumbersome shareholder of General Motors (see box below) that raised these exploratory contacts.

Today, GM is more that never take the ear to conclude a large wedding, and could save the appearances by offering to cooperate on a few selected areas, such as hybrid vehicles and hydrogen, if expand the circle which it already associated with DaimlerChrysler and BMW. "It is not spent three months to reach specific agreements, limited", replies the patron of Renault and Nissan. Concerning its deadline next mid-October, "I do not think that the solution is a small joint-venture to buy equipment in Thailand."

Conqueror reasoning

Recalling that it is not itself at the origin of the contacts between the three automakers, he does not let pass this "opportunity", and place a conqueror reasoning. "The transformation of the automotive industry will now accelerate." However, with Renault-Nissan, has been something that no one has succeeded. I regard this as a competitive advantage, and it would not serious not think to use it. "Since the alliance is something that works, we need the maximize, expand it", says Carlos Ghosn. The pattern of Renault and Nissan is also understanding his interlocutor, speaking of "professional" work with General Motors, a blind eye to "leakage" in the press us and on the different numbers that can appear on industrial synergies. "Evaluation of synergies is a very complicated exercise." Can arrive at very different quantifications, with ranges. "What is important is the order of magnitude." If there is an agreement next month on the fruits of the alliance for the three groups, then comes the second and last part of the discussions, on the implementation and a possible exchange of shares.

Ambiguous speech of GM

But, in the camp of General Motors, the speech is much more embarrassed. Bringing together, too, journalists by small groups in the world of Paris, its President, Rick Wagoner, takes an ambiguous speech. "It would be irresponsible for us that a third party dictate us our strategy". We have a strategy in place, which gives results. "At the same time, we would be stupid to not think about new ideas", he said. Unlike that of Carlos Ghosn, the decision expected mid-October will result not necessarily by "Yes or no", it could mean that there are some subjects that should still discuss.

Forgetting its losses of more than 10.5 billion (EUR 8.3 billion) last year, the pattern of General Motors starts in a plea pro domo to its policy, in not providing any place to Renault in his reasoning. On the conquest of emerging countries (China, Russia...), lowering the consumption of the vehicles in the United States, the reduction of social costs, or deployment of marks key as Chevrolet, "which sounds better than Dacia and Daewoo", GM management was indeed the feeling of a sans-faute. And almost seems to regret his cooperation with Fiat brief: "We have not reached the level of synergies identified at the outset." "But we exchanged much information and many learned," says Rick Wagoner.