Medium term the experts remain optimistic

As if they did not have enough grounds for concern in developed markets, Western automakers observe with fear the current brake kick in the major emerging countries. Since a few weeks for some, a few months for the others, the famous BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) give indeed simultaneously signs of slowing down. A worrying sign for manufacturers, who sell there near a car in four.

In China, the main market, the climate changed this summer. After having greatly slowed down in July ( 3.9 compared to July 2007), the registrations of new cars declined in August ( 6.2), quite unexpectedly: this is the first monthly decline since more than two years. The attention paid by the Chinese at the Olympic Games does not explain everything. The gasoline price increases decided by the authorities, in June and early October in Beijing again, reflect the potential customers. Similarly, the Ministry of finance will significantly increase the taxes on purchases of models with large engines. At the time, some players, such as Toyota, reduce their local production. However, General Motors (GM), number one in China, remains relatively optimistic, always relying on growth of 11 to 12 this year in the Middle Kingdom.

Scenario one similar in Russia, where things could spoil more in 2009. This huge country is supposed to become the first European auto market next year, passing the Germany. But the customers have become more hesitant, as a result of the shortage of credit. All major constructors that have brand new factories or construction, hold their breath. The direction of Ford of Europe observed that the growth of sales, all brands combined, from 25 early in the year to only 5. Zero growth, next year, is not excluded.

In Renault, despite the breakthrough of the Logan, there is a low attendance of the Russians in showrooms. In question, the lack of liquidity of banks, who want more open new folders of credits. A point followed closely by the French group, just to buy 25 of AvtoVAZ to help revive the Lada brand in the years to come. For its part, Toyota has revised downward its forecasts of growth in the Russian market for next year, reducing it by 15 to only 5, according to Thierry Dombreval, Toyota Europe Executive Vice President.

The experts remain optimistic

Even the Brazil, which seemed better to keep so far, through its low dependence on oil (cars operate there in majority from sugar cane ethanol), see also its rate begin to slow down. September sales, all brands combined, certainly jumped 32 (after 4 in August), but the association of local manufacturers (Anfavea) considers that the pace will decline in the coming months, due to the higher interest rates. Since the beginning of the year, shipments rose by 27, but groups such as PSA, who play there a portion of their stimulus, crossing fingers that it lasts. Taking the lead, Fiat and GM, respectively the numbers one and three in the Brazil come to introduce measures of technical unemployment in local factories.

In India, the brake is still more net. The annual growth rate went below 10 this summer, at only 1.7 in July. Manufacturers have been forced to raise the price of cars, to reflect inflation in raw materials, an increase in addition to the fuel.

Medium term, the experts remain optimistic. The four BRIC should produce, by 2015, 28 of light vehicles in the world (half in China), while other newcomers such as the Mexico, the Turkey or the Czech Republic will represent 11, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers.