It is again the Glass Steagall Act without realize

Blue eyes sparkling behind his large glasses tortoise, Felix Rohatyn has nothing lost his Olympian calm. Despite the crisis. The man who helped save New York from bankruptcy in the 1970s, before being appointed Ambassador to the United States in France by Bill Clinton from 1997 to 2000, has seen others. Relaxed and courteous, it receives its visitors in the offices of the Rohatyn Group, the "hedge fund" launched by son Nick in 2002, at the top of the Tower Deutsche Bank on Park Avenue. Was eighty years old, this veteran of the business bank, who made the war of Korea in the ranks of the army, does not rallied to the "hero of the Viet Nam". It supports Barack Obama. Nothing surprising in this democratic convinced for a long time. But it is far from being an isolated on Wall Street event.

"When the number one problem was the Iraq, McCain had no doubt the advantage." But the economic crisis has completely changed the dynamics of this election. "McCain did not gave the impression that he controlled the situation", says the former managing partner of Lazard. He also attributed much of the "slide" of the Republican candidate in its his choice, Sarah Palin. On the other hand, considers that Barack Obama was able to surround a team "of any leading" in the economic field, with the former President of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, and the ex-secrétaires Bill Clinton Treasury, Lawrence Summers and Robert Rubin, obtaining the support of Billionaire Warren Buffett. "The fact that the largest American investor turns to a Liberal candidate in the anglo-saxon sense of the term is in itself very important," notes that the business expert, who had been appointed two years "senior advisor" of the pattern of Lehman Brothers. Somehow, the Illinois Senator was able to bridge the gap between Wall Street, Silicon Valley and Hollywood. Which ensures not to the indispensable support of "joe" the plumber and "swing states" in the US.

"The only one who can save Wall Street, it is Obama, because he knows the importance of financial markets and he understood the need to intervene, while the non-interventionist approach to McCain remains largely dogmatic," said Roman Frydman, Professor of Economics at New York University. This is not for nothing that Barack Obama has taught constitutional law for 12 years at the University of Chicago, where long reigned "liberal economists" under the leadership of Milton Friedman. "The Chicago Boys beware!", has even launched the Naomi Klein anti-globalization activist noting that Barack Obama is one of its main supporters Kenneth Griffin, hedge fund Citadel Investment pattern, based in the metropolis of Illinois.

Important financial support

"New York is very democratic." "Financial circles are mostly for Obama in the first place because they were for Clinton," said the French financier Jean Karoubi, Chairman of the Management Fund Longchamp Group, installed in the "Big Apple" for thirty years.

A look more closely, the two candidates have important relay on Wall Street. Among the main support of the Obama within the application world affairs are, of course, Warren Buffett and financier George Soros, who has "bet" on the Illinois Senator as of January 2007, but also the names of lesser-known as the patron of UBS Americas, Robert Wolf. Has played a leading role in raising funds for the financing of the campaign of Barack Obama, which have reached recently the amount record 660 million (1).

On his side, John McCain has also significant support in the financial community. Among its main sponsors are the second "K" of the firm of investment KKR, Henry Kravis, the pattern of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, founder of Moore Capital, Louis Bacon, or the pattern of Apollo Management, Mark Rowan. In addition, Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain, former boss of the New York Stock Exchange, part of the Committee for support of the Republican candidate. The author of the resumption of Bank of America is even cited as a potential candidate to the position of Secretary to the Treasury if John McCain is elected.

Response capacity

In fact, Wall Street does not all its eggs in one basket. According to a recent survey of "New York Times", are found many executives of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers or AIG's, the three main victims of the financial crisis, among major individual donors of the two candidates. Even Richard Fuld, the fallen "gorilla" (and was nicknamed the pattern of Lehman), collecting a bonus of $ 22 million six months prior to the bankruptcy of its bank, among the generous supporters of Barack Obama. Three leaders of Merrill Lynch, among them John Thain, paid 28.500 dollars each to the campaign of John McCain, while a dozen employees of Goldman Sachs have signed similar checks for Barack Obama. A detailed examination reveals that the Republican candidate has even benefited from more donations than his Democratic opponent in the area of investment and hedge fund firms. However, the latter is more lawyers and worldly recipe. But this is not sufficient to infer that the Arizona Senator is the favorite of the large Wall Street firms.

"It is true." There is, on Wall Street, a stream of clear sympathy for Obama. "It is in part linked to the fact that we have forgotten our roots," said Republican Senator of New Hampshire, Judd Gregg, one of the most fervent supporters of the $ 700 billion rescue plan adopted by the Congress. "The Republican party is traditionally stronger in the South and West than in the northeast of the country, where the Democrats are better implanted," nuance this former supporter of Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination. "Be wary of polls and media excitement for Barack Obama", warns. Nevertheless: in the view of most scientists, the Illinois Senator was able to respond to the financial crisis with greater speed and skill than his opponent. Unlike John McCain, who has often changed foot, first criticizing the rescue of AIG's for rally finally refinancing of banks, Barack Obama has immediately made its support for the Secretary to the Treasury, Henry Paulson rescue plan. While making his personal touch. "Usually, Wall Street favors instead the Republicans when it comes to managing the economy." "But, this time, the financial community is rather sceptical", said James j. Cramer, co-founder of TheStreet, convinced that the Democratic candidate is better able to manage the recession coming. "Obama has a better team, with people such as the Economist and former Harvard President Larry Summers, probably one of the best placed to resolve the crisis, and Warren Buffett", he added.

The return of the regulation

On the merits, the proposals of the two adversaries to Wall Street on track were not radically different (see above). Both advocate a better framework for financial markets, a rationalization of the Federal agencies of supervision, a strengthening of the obligations of transparency and the sanctions. Somehow, one as the other argue for a return to a certain "re-regulation". "It is again the Glass Steagall Act without realize." "I was always a little surprised Democrats him bury them so easily", recognizes Felix Rohatyn.

But the tactics into account as far as the substance. While John McCain would emphasize the punitive nature of the new regulatory framework and its determination to fight against the "greed" of the "fat cats" on Wall Street "corporate greed and excess", denounced during the first debate presidential , the Democratic candidate has paradoxically opted for a more measured tone. Some will say more "centrist" or more "Blair", in any case more respectful of the realities of the market.

The time of "Blairism"

"The fact that McCain is low on the economic plan is to reassure voters or the financial community", insists Felix Rohatyn, convinced that Barack Obama is going to be compelled "to of Blairism." I think that his relationship with Nicolas Sarkozy will be very good. "Both see the State as a potential aid and not as the enemy."

The three names most often cited for the position of Secretary of the Treasury, in case of victory of Obama, include Larry Summers, Tim Geithner, President of the Federal Reserve of New York, and the banker Roger Altman (Evercore Partners). But some Republicans hope that the current Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson (ex-Goldman Sachs), will be able to retain his position, at least three to six months, "the time to reorganize the structures of control."

The "fat cats" Wall Street would they suddenly converted to the virtues of regulated capitalism Or are they on the jurisdiction and "Blair pragmatism" the Senator from Illinois and his team to limit the case "All I hope is that they build more garbage such as abandoning Lehman Brothers!" sighs a new financial.