75 in the Act of programming or credits 1

Waiting to know their post-remaniement fate, Ministers have at least a certainty: the credits they will benefit in 2010 will be very low, or even decrease in real terms for most of them. "Caps letters" signed by Matignon were sent as early as this weekend. They confirm the deletion of 34,000 positions of public servants in 2010 and provide an increase in expenditure strictly limited to inflation (1.2), non-stimulus package, or a bowl of air of 4.3 billion euros, of which much is again on the rise in the debt burden, the pensions of officials and the contribution to the budget of the Union European.

Lively discussions

Usually, the letters are fastened in the second half of July, but this year, François Fillon was brought to arbitration on a limited number of subjects with the financial programming triennial Act, which, as early as last year, had recorded credit of ministries until 2011. Discussions have nevertheless been animated in the last straight line with Christine Albanel (Culture) and Michele Alliot-Marie (Interior). In the end, the Minister of the Budget, Eric Woerth, did not change, or at the margin, the amounts planned for half of the missions. Justice, higher education and research which will be well near credits EUR 800 million more remain priorities, in addition the employment. While the budget deficit will reach a historical level in 2009, sweeping forecasts of multi-annual programming, the three-year budget allows to keep a compass and avoid efficiency rules imposed on departments disappear with the crisis.

The brutal recession and the prospect of a slow recovery in 2010, however, led the Minister of the Budget to operate a series of developments. First, it took integrate the revision downward forecast inflation at 1.2 instead of 1.75 in the Act of programming, or credits 1.7 billion less to meet rule "zero volume. Bercy is managed by reducing, in particular, the spending for pensions of the officials (which will be less increased in the light of inflation) and those related to the burden of public debt. What will have to cease to amaze, while it should approach 80 of GDP. The burden of debt was to move from 42.5 to 44.2 billion euros. This will be a little less with the low rates of interest, provides the Ministry of the Budget. But in the medium term, the risk of asphyxiation related to the obligation to repay the debt is more real than ever.

Another mission concerned by low inflation: the defence. His credits have been revised downward, as the cost of the investment programme had been overestimated, and fuel expenses.

Conversely, some departments see their reinforced means from what was originally intended to deal with the consequences of the economic crisis. This is the case of the budget for employment but also missions incorporating social allocations: aid to housing (under condition of resources), in particular, strongly increased in times of crisis. Bercy has also had to integrate an extra effort to finance the RSA, as the product of 1.1 on the products of the capital contribution will be less than the EUR 1.5 billion expected. The levy on revenues for the benefit of the European Union is also revised upward (while it should be stable), due to the increase in the share of the France in European GDP weaker GDP decline (devaluation of the pound).

Continue investments

The crisis has also and especially led the Government to meet the expenses of the mission revival, EUR 3.5 billion instead of 1.6 billion (after 10.3 billion in 2009). It is to fund the completion of the launched public investments this year (some 600 of them have started on the 1,000 programmed). He is also to provide again the social investment Fund (Fiso), which has received EUR 1.3 billion this year and could obtain a staffing of the same order in 2010. An important part of the employment measures is indeed supported by the Fiso (read here), whose existence may continue after the crisis.