8 in September was favorable to the dollar

The rating of popularity of the dollar returned seriously these days with foreign exchange dealers. The latest statistics on the State of health of the US economy helped reassure stakeholders. Markets, the spectre of recession gave way to the prospect of a soft landing. The greenback took good advantage. Yesterday morning, the euro settled until 1,2490 dollar, not far from the point low observed in a meeting Friday to 1,2484 dollar. Signs of this renewed interest, the investigation of the US regulator for derivatives markets, the CFTC on short positions reflects a net become positive for the dollar for the first time since April.

Operators however preferred a pause before trying to lead more before the US currency. Indeed, the euro is exchanged at 1,2524 later in the day, increased by 0.12. The pound sterling is hissée from 0.2 to 1,8609 dollar. Several central bankers should express this week. And including the President of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke (on bank regulation), and Janet Yellen (Fed in San Francisco) and William Poole (St. Louis) yesterday early evening. Indices of prices at the production and consumption are also on the agenda today and tomorrow. Economists expect on average to an increase of 0.2 in September of prices excluding food and energy, a rate unchanged from the month of August.

In the meantime, the market therefore seized the pretext of the publication of the Empire State Manufacturing index for calm and take some profits. At first glance, but this indicator of activity for the New York area, rising to 22.9 points in October after 13.8 in September, was favorable to the dollar. But stakeholders have highlighted the recession of new orders, with the index passes 13.96 points in September to 11.75.

Slight relaxation bond

On the bond market, rates are very slightly relaxed at the start of week, the image of the 2 American years, a decrease of 2 basis points, 4.844.

BNP Paribas is prudent with regard to the evolution of the dollar. "The contraction of the real estate market significantly affects the economy and, as long as real estate activity will show no signs of recovery, our pessimism persists for the US economy," noted his team changes. The decline of 0.5 of the retail sales, published last Friday, is figure of warning them. Finally, short rates reflect almost more the possibility of a reduction in rates by the Fed. In other words, "the dollar should be supported by the increase in the short rate, where an increase of interest rates by the Fed is excluded".

In this context, the rebound of the yen was amplified yesterday by the prospect of a possible change in the allocation of the reserves of the Russia. Later in the day, the dollar posted a decrease of 0.46, to 119,23 yen. The Vice-President of the Russian Central Bank, Alexei Ulyukayev, told the Interfax agency that the institution could increase its detention of assets denominated in yen, currently almost non-existent. The head would have mentioned a desire to bring its reserves in yen to several percentage points.