Even if a great Shia arc will not likely come

After the Iraq, the war of the Lebanon contributed in turn to a revival of Shia, one of the main minority branches of islam which brings together in the world of 140 million to more than 210 million of the faithful, according to the definitions. S corruptions Lebanese Hezbollah, financially supported by the Islamic Republic of Iran with the help of the Alawi Syria regime, has insisted his victory on Israel at the end of an operation of IDF (Israeli army) into Lebanese territory. All experts agree therefore that, if in a traditional war there was a victorious camp and camp defeated, in the case of asymmetric warfare, as is the case here, there is neither winner nor defeated because the theatre of operations of the two camps is not the same. Despite the dreadful preparation for the offensive to the IDF Lebanon, Israel is not strictly speaking lost the war and also caused destruction that today ' hui denounce Lebanese and non-governmental organizations. The Shiite fundamentalist organization has not earned it. The strengthening of the interim force (UNIFIL) Lebanon UN after the commitments of French President Jacques Chirac as well as the Italian Romano Prodi and others to deploy to the Lebanon of the troops under the UN blue helmets, may interfere with the margin of manoeuvre in the field of Hezbollah.

But politically it is a different story. The Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, forced to engage in a genuine soul-searching since the entry into force on 14 August of a very fragile cease-fire, has lost the war in this field without having reached the goal of the offensive: disarm Hezbollah. Course for Israel, a winner out country of wars Flash like that of 1948, one of the Six-day in 1967, even of the the Yom Kippur war of 1973 against the armies of the Arab Coalition, representing a situation very high risk. On the other side, on the political front, Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah, emerged victorious. At least in his eyes and those of its supporters to Iranian or Syrian and a non-negligible fraction of the Muslim world. His "victory" has exceeded the boundaries of the southern Lebanon. Thousands of Shiites in Baghdad him and expressed their support. Some have even wanted to see in him a new Nasser, the leading Egyptian champion of pan-Arabism. But this revival of Shi'ism, more than a quarter of a century after the revolution in 1979 Iran, can be achieved in the establishment of a major axis that would have as epicentre Tehran, avant-garde in the Arab world the "party of God" Lebanese and support the Iraq Shiite majority, the Syria led by the Alawi minority, a branch of Shi'ism, with the support of minorities as in Saudi Arabiafurther north of the Iran in Azerbaijan, and Bahrain or in India

Nothing is less sure in the "complicated Orient." "There is a"panchiisme"", or even a branch unified for the community. "On the other hand Shia share a coherent religious vision since their separation from the Sunni Islam in the 16th century, emphasized Valir Nasr, specialist of political islam in the last delivery of the American magazine"foreign affairs". As was already the case of the time of Nasser, unity in the Muslim world, between Arabs and, this time with the Iranians, is more than the area of the illusion of reality. However, there are well in the political arena the affinities and converging interests between countries and groups such as Hezbollah. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also well understood by ceasing to promise the destruction of the Jewish State and engaged in an arm of Iran's nuclear program with the Western Railway. A political objective which is good to say the former, Perse, as action in the Muslim world, Shia but also Sunni. The Iran is not only supplier of weapons to the Lebanese Hezbollah. But the "Pasdaran" Iranian (the guardians of the Revolution), as noted Michel Makinsky in an article published in the quarterly journal "Geo-economics" under the ironic title "A Iran sure of him and overbearing", "assist and train the forces of Hezbollah Lebanese and Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad activists. Of course, this support is limited. Elias Sanbar, representative of Palestine to Unesco, feared, last may after the resounding electoral victory of the Palestinian radical movement Hamas, a "sliding" to Tehran. The current situation in the middle and Middle East "is a part of the Palestinian population to say that salvation will come to Tehran", emphasized the intellectual. But it was for him to call the international community and Europe in the first place not "playing the sorcerer's Apprentice" by cutting bridges with the Palestinians. Hezbollah itself, also acts and especially in the Lebanese political space and is faced with a choice between his national resistance movement identity and allegiance to a foreign power. Similarly, the Shiite Iraq is monolithic and is part of Iraq. Ayatollah Ali Sistani has also never wanted confuse political and religious spheres. Barah gaffe, a researcher at the Iris (Institute for international and strategic relations), questioned recently in "Le Figaro" knowing to what extent the Iraqi ayatollah could place themselves under the cup of a Shia Iranian leadership. Do not minimize the emergence of young Shiite leaders as Moqtada al-Sadr that arose at the anti-American insurgency in Najaf in 2004 as a rival of Sistani storage under its moral authority. But, still, it fits in a "framework". Number of exiled Iranian opposition, continually also noted that the inflamed speech of Ahmadinejad mask poorly internal difficulties. That said, the situation in the region remains explosive. Not only Hezbollah is disarmed step as required by the resolutions of the UN, not only the Iran is not ready to give up its ambitions nuclear, only the West Bank and the Gaza Strip sink into chaos, but the United States are increasingly bogged down in Iraq and, as always, Europe is struggling to impose politically as a force of mediation in the region. And it is likely these weaknesses the Iran also has to first get out of its isolation and position itself as a regional power. Even if a great Shia arc will not likely come.