Of course growth takes off and is above 5

Euler - SFAC, that world. What are you, main French credit insurer, the main country risk for businesses

Today, it is clear that what might be called "country risk", i.e. that of non-payment related to the situation of a country, decreases. It is now only between 5 and 10 of global GDP. Thirty years ago, it was much more important and it is sometimes forgotten that the Portugal and even the Greece were considered as countries at risk. Same thing with regard to China ten years ago. Today, we see primarily as falling within the commercial risk.

If you look at it, only the Russia and the Turkey are real risks for French companies. At least, these are two very large countries that can still be of this type of analysis. Of course, thanks to the increase in the price of oil, the Russia enjoys a comfortable macroeconomic situation, but the political risk and those related to the governance of companies too much rest. As the Turkey, it combines political instability and a fragile external situation of a significant current account deficit and reserves is not as high as you think.

These are risk-both the most important that we keep. It is not the only, but the others are smaller. With of strong current, and budget deficits and a troubled political situation, the Hungary we also concerned.

What do you think of what is happening in Latin America, including the arrival to power of a new generation of left-wing governments

I was on the spot there is little time. I was surprised to see that the situation there has improved much more that is not often. Of course, growth there is not at the level of Asia, but it is there. The macroeconomic situation is favoured in the major countries of the continent: Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Chile. The problem is that it is countries linked to the United States, therefore dependent on a slowdown in the latter. But we keep rather a scenario of landing smoothly, including in real estate. Similarly, we accept the idea that there will be no problems with the Chinese situation, despite its record trade surplus.

China invests in force in Africa. Is it to say that Europeans fail recovery and the development potential of this part of the world

There is not that only Africa. First, there are all the Maghreb that is truly a zone are off the ground. The Sub-Saharan economy is in a different situation. Of course, growth takes off and is above 5. But I think the gist of it is primarily to the increase in energy base and raw and not implementing true springs of growth products. To Africa should remain lagging behind the rest of the world.

What analysis do you wear on the French situation

I worked primarily out of France over the past five years. I therefore find the hexagon. I am annoyed by déclinistes speeches, but large segments of our industry really suffer. It is undeniable that we have a problem of competitiveness and that even if we have the best hourly productivity in the G7, our hourly costs remain far too high. Similarly, one cannot forget that the parity current euro/dollar penalizes us much, then same as on foreign markets our specialization is not the best that is. If entrepreneurship measures have been taken and are beginning to yield results, it is all export. Our SMEs are not large enough and do not export enough, especially not on an ongoing basis. On 100,000 exporting each year, only 40,000 do regularly. The trade deficit is a real problem that costs us near a point of growth per year.