550 billion remains at the centre of the questions

Is the greenback close to losing its status as safe haven Despite a slight rebound yesterday, related to the impact of the North Korean test firing, the downtrend of the dollar rekindled concerns about the massive issuance of debt by the authorities American and soundness in the term of the "triple A" note of the United States. After having crossed the threshold of 1.40 dollar per euro, for the first time since January 2 (with a decline of 10 since March), the greenback a week, slightly regagné ground yesterday morning against the euro (at 1.39) in an uncertain international climate. But many economists now expect on a downturn in the dollar in the medium term on a background of worsening of the deficit. The origin of the nervousness of investors: massive sales of Treasury securities will resume this week and should reach 3.250 billion at the end of the fiscal year, according to Goldman Sachs.

"Markets begin to anticipate the possibility of a possible deterioration of financial of the United States note, although it certainly won't the day happen overnight," told Bloomberg the pattern of Fund Pimco (Pacific Investment Management), Bill Gross, one of the first to make the alarm a few days ago.

Deficits on the rise

With concerns about the strength of the note of the US debt in the wake of the negative probation of the United Kingdom by Standard & Poor's, the Secretary of the Treasury, Timothy Geithner, reaffirmed its goal of reducing the deficit of 12.9 to 3 of GDP in 2013. But need more to reassure investors in the first rank of which China, most large holder of us securities on soaring public deficit (1,800 billion in 2009) and the extent of the trade deficit (680 billion in 2008).

With the assumption of a strong depreciation of the dollar, the reaction of China, estimated the level of reserves in US Treasury securities 1.550 billion, remains at the centre of the questions. Timothy Geithner is also to go to Beijing next week, to reassure its interlocutors on the stability of the dollar. After the recent statements by the Governor of the Central Bank, Zhou Xiaochuan, in favour of a new international reserve currency based on the rights of the international monetary Fund (IMF) special drawing (DTS), relations with Washington are are slightly strained and Beijing opened discussions with the Brazil on the use of their respective currencies in bilateral trade. According to Economist Nouriel Roubini (New York University), the dollar's reserve currency status could be challenged "earlier" that they are assumed by the Chinese renminbi, even if it is not yet part of the basket of currencies component of IMF SDRS. "If China and other countries were to walk away from the dollar to diversify their reserves they will eventually do so and the United States are likely to suffer", has recently written Nouriel Roubini in "New York Times," Recalling that the strong dollar has helped so far U.S. authorities to borrow at attractive rates on the market.

Other experts remain, however, more measured on the risk of a sharp depreciation of the dollar. "What has seen last week is rather paradoxical strength of the dollar correction and the end of the artificial support that he has made the crisis rather than a broad loss of confidence in the strength of us assets," said economist Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, noting that "the euro is not in a position of great strength". For him, the true factor of concern is a possible lift of the US external deficit that the crisis has slowed by half in the first quarter (to 3 of GDP).