The question is what the industrialists who escape

The rebound is spectacular. In a month, automotive industry courses come on average up 38 on the stock market around the world. And two European manufacturers who have most benefited from this rally: the Renault action has doubled, while that of Fiat rose by 88, 27 in the single session of Thursday... The Japanese Mazda and Nissan, Ford, Kia Korean American and German BMW have also regagné of the land.

This resurrection is part of the renewed confidence that took all of the stock market since early March. But not only. On average, stock markets have won only 19 in one month, twice less than the automobile. Investors want to believe that this sector, the first to have been hit by the crisis and killed on the stock market, will also be the first to touch the bottom. And that the time has arrived.

A credo fuelled notably by the Credit Switzerland Bank, which analysts noted Friday their forecasts about the automobile, for the second time this year. Excluding Volkswagen, whose stock route has been very exceptional due to the collection of titles by Porsche, the courts of the European players in the sector "remain at depressed levels", despite their recent rebound, said the note of Credit Switzerland. "They are 70 lower at their peak from October 2007", which still leaves a potential increase for investors decided to play the turnaround cycle. The bet is largely based on a tangible element: several large markets motor continued to deteriorate. Last month, sales of new cars rose by 0.2 in Italy, from 8.1 in France and... 40 in Germany.

Rush in Germany

In France, it's part of a hike in Sham, related to the fact that some deliveries could not be made the previous month and no doubt also rental massive sales in the last days of the month. Germany, the movement is due to a rush of buyers, to take advantage of the premium in the case until it is reduced or stopped. In these three countries, however, support measures implemented by the States showed overall effectiveness, while lack of such premiums, registrations continue to drop in countries such as the Spain. In total, assistance plans thus seem able to substantially mitigate the effects of the crisis. "The forecasts, expect on average to a decline of 20 to 25 of the market in the West this year, seem too pessimistic," consider Credit Switzerland analysts, who expect to less than 10. In the United States, they expect also that the market soon reaches a floor. Last month, he however still plunged 37, despite monsters promotions. Overseas, sales are currently so low that there is more traffic than new vehicles put into service withdrawn cars. This had not happened since 1991.

Last positive element in the eyes of investors: manufacturers who will survive the crisis will be perhaps stronger than in the past. The current turmoil has launched a large household in the area. Some players may disappear. And those who resist are major efforts to improve their productivity and stop their less bearing activities. The question is what the industrialists who escape. Markets, they clearly have their favorites, such as Toyota and Volkswagen, the two highest capitalization of the sector. Conversely, the General Motors action remains behind: it has not moved in a month and is always 90 less than a year ago...