A study by McKinsey 1 reflects the phenomenon

It is called the "Grey Lady", in the austerity of its first page. The most famous of the New York will rise this year very respectable age of one hundred fifty-eight years. Of course, to achieve this, "new york times" had a little to fold on its a grey. First photos, increasingly large, and since this week, horror, of advertising, there, right next to the currency that is his pride, "news that fit to print". But the situation is serious. Layoffs, reduced pages and format have shaken in recent months the New York institution. In question, a reversal of conditions of exceptional brutality, at the time where accelerates a technological mutation that calls into question all the economic fundamentals of the business.

Of course, Manhattan log is not only to be suddenly caught in the trap. It is even one of the less threatened. In his country, one of his main colleagues, Tribune, editor of the "Chicago Tribune" and the "Los Angeles Times", is in bankruptcy and there are more than 13,000 deletions of posts of journalists in 2008. In Europe, the daily press is located in a similar situation. In Britain, thousands of jobs are removed, as well as France, countries where it is both weaker and more assisted. A point that the Government organized States General of the press, whose conclusions will be presented Thursday to the Minister of Culture in 2008.

Who still read newspapers tomorrow A concept born in the 19th century, at the time when democracy took hold on the two continents. The dailies were the lighthouse of the information of the elites and the education of the masses. But since twenty years, the dissemination of newspapers is steadily declining and reflects a major technological and demographic developments: with the television and the Internet, the younger generations are moving away from paper, at least in its daily form. A study by McKinsey (1) reflects the phenomenon. In 1982, almost 60 of Americans between 18 and 24 years read a daily newspaper. In 2008, only 34 of them do the same. In addition, their elders they also reduce their consumption. And the fall seems to accelerate with the expansion of the Internet broadband.

And conditions gives a good extra blow on the head of the newspapers, already weakened by this tide. Thus the "New York Times", which also has the "International Herald Tribune", "Boston Globe" and fifteen regional dailies, has two main sources of revenue: advertising, for over two-thirds of the turnover, and the sale of newspapers. Advertising revenues are only on the Internet. Otherwise, they fall. In some areas, such as ads, the collapse reaches 40. In view of this, production costs are large increase. As a result, the profitability of the Group degrades at full speed.

To loosen the grip, the society plays on two levers: the reduction of costs (printing, distribution) and the deployment on the Internet, one area still growing. For three years, the Group engaged in an ambitious policy in this area. First developing the presence of the "NYT" on the Web, with the merger of the drawing paper and the Internet. A success, as the site of the newspaper, one of the most popular of the Web with its countless blogs and prestigious signatures, reported nearly 200 million in revenues.

But the Group also carried out the acquisition of a star, About site, which uses a network of experts to provide practical information to Internet users. Structure at very low costs, network of outside contributors, About model is roughly the inverse of that of a newspaper. Its revenues are modest, $ 100 million, but its gross margin close to 50. The problem is that this success is insufficient to bring the revival of the group. The Internet is only 12 of the revenues of the company. It is true that the advertising is buying very cheap. Considered generally as a "paper drive" reported ten times more in advertising as a "drive Internet." At the time, look ten times more "Internet readers", which in addition will not, them, the good taste to buy the newspaper ("new york times" is completely free on the Web).

But the multiplication of the acquisitions of this type and the likely lift at end of the Web advertising rates will solve all the difficulties, especially in periods of low short-term water. McKinsey consultants believe that the model of the future for the press must necessarily introduce new sources of income. First, with the brand extension and diversification. And cite the old "National geographic" and its diversification or the "Sunday Times" British, which would achieve about 15 of its turnover with his "Wine Club". A risky in terms of image, but remunerative and little gourmet capital strategy. The other runway is to sell other products taking advantage of its distribution strength. A strategy already used by many newspapers, including French, with products of type films or books, but which could be extended more widely.

As in other areas devastated by the digital revolution, as the disk or photography, to expect redefinitions of sector, with the arrival of new players and the disappearance of those already in place. Because the transition is difficult to negotiate. To diversify, to financial means that all do not have. On the conversion to digital, it requires a tact human resources out of the ordinary. More than half of the experiences in this area have failed. It must engage time and means to bring the membership of the teams in place.

This is what has made the "Daily Telegraph" in Britain (2). Life is there is more organized around the output of the newspaper the next day, but the four moments of the day, those where readers are looking for information, before the work in the morning, at lunch and at night. Before leaving at 16 hours, can print a real newspaper, summary of the next morning. The concept of daily fades for the benefit of the information provider at the time where the reader research.

The journal has gained in productivity (he is out of the Red) and also its competitiveness, the speed and completeness of the information on the Internet, and therefore readership.

The transition thus promises to be great for often centuries-old institutions (including "Les echos"), which, after having suffered the onslaught of the radio and then television, must now be merged in the most powerful medium ever invented. This is not a revolution which expects the gray ladies, but a reinvention.